The spatial relationship between tuberculosis and alcohol outlets in the township of Mamelodi, South Africa.

Background: The availability of alcohol in society is known to increase the risk of a range of negative health outcomes. Objectives: The aim of this research is to determine if there is a spatial association between tuberculosis and alcohol outlets in Mamelodi, South Africa. We also aim to examine whether the socio-economic characteristics of the neighbourhood in which an alcohol outlet was located was related to the magnitude of tuberculosis in the immediate vicinity of the alcohol outlet. Methods: Location quotient analysis is used to compare the extent of tuberculosis within a series of buffer intervals (100m, 200m, 300m) immediately surrounding alcohol outlets with tuberculosis across the township of Mamelodi as a whole. Results: The density of tuberculosis around alcohol outlets in Mamelodi at all buffer distances was found to be substantially higher than across the township as a whole. These findings indicate that the risk of tuberculosis in Mamelodi is higher around alcohol outlets. Alcohol outlets located in more deprived areas of Mamelodi were significantly associated with higher density of tuberculosis relative to alcohol outlets located in more affluent neighbourhoods. Conclusion: Despite alcohol outlets forming an integral part of the urban landscape in townships in South Africa, they may facilitate the transmission of tuberculosis.

Is green space associated with reduced crime? A national-scale study from the Global South.

Assumptions about the link between green space and crime mitigation are informed by literature that overwhelmingly originates in the Global North. Little is known about the association between green spaces and crime in the Global South. We utilized 10 years of precinct-level crime statistics (n = 1152) over South Africa, a global crime hotspot, to test the hypothesis that green space is associated with reduced crime rates. We found that, after controlling for a number of socio-demographic confounders (unemployment, income, age, education, land use and population density), for every 1% increase in total green space there is a 1.2% (0.7 to 1.7%; 95% confidence interval) decrease in violent crime, and 1.3% (0.8 to 1.8%) decrease in property crime, with no effect on sexual crimes. However, the direction of the association changed for property crimes when exploring the effect of green space characteristics including tree cover and park accessibility. Property crimes increase by 0.4% (0.1 to 0.7%) with a percentage increase in tree cover, and by 0.9% (0.5 to 1.3%) with every kilometer increase in proximity to a public park. Further research, including experimental studies, is needed to better isolate causal mechanisms behind crime-green space associations, especially considering that green space may map to race and income inequality and that there may be more crime reporting in affluent areas. Nevertheless, our results provide a complementary contribution to the evidence from the Global North, highlighting the need for more nuanced definitions of green space and its characteristics when considering links to crime. When viewed in light of the broader suite of ecosystem services provided by green space, our results support urban greening as a major strategy towards achieving just and sustainable cities and towns.

The association between weather and crime in a township setting in South Africa.

The association between various meteorological parameters and crime is well-established in developed contexts. In contrast in this study, we investigated the association between three weather parameters (temperature, relative humidity and rainfall) and three categories of crime in the developing township of Khayelitsha, in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Distributed lag non-linear modelling was used to identify temporal relationships between temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and violent, property and sexual crime over a 10-year period (2006-2016). We found hot days (defined as [Formula: see text] 25 °C) increased the cumulative relative risk of violent crime by up to 32% but were also found to be associated with a lagged increase in violent crime for at least a week thereafter. On very cold days (defined as [Formula: see text]), the cumulative relative risk of property crime increased by up to 50% whereas on very rainy days (defined as [Formula: see text]) the risk of property crime surprisingly increased by 40%. These findings provide some additional evidence for the relationship between the atmospheric environment and human behaviour in a developing context.

The spatial relationship between tuberculosis and alcohol outlets in the township of Mamelodi, South Africa

Background: The availability of alcohol in society is known to increase the risk of a range of negative health outcomes. Objectives: The aim of this research is to determine if there is a spatial association between tuberculosis and alcohol outlets in Mamelodi, South Africa. We also aim to examine whether the socio-economic characteristics of the neighbourhood in which an alcohol outlet was located was related to the magnitude of tuberculosis in the immediate vicinity of the alcohol outlet. Methods: Location quotient analysis is used to compare the extent of tuberculosis within a series of buffer intervals (100m, 200m, 300m) immediately surrounding alcohol outlets with tuberculosis across the township of Mamelodi as a whole. Results: The density of tuberculosis around alcohol outlets in Mamelodi at all buffer distances was found to be substantially higher than across the township as a whole. These findings indicate that the risk of tuberculosis in Mamelodi is higher around alcohol outlets. Alcohol outlets located in more deprived areas of Mamelodi were significantly associated with higher density of tuberculosis relative to alcohol outlets located in more affluent neighbourhoods. Conclusion: Despite alcohol outlets forming an integral part of the urban landscape in townships in South Africa, they may facilitate the transmission of tuberculosis.

Waste Disposal Practices in Low-Income Settlements of South Africa.

Domestic solid waste is rapidly increasing due to accelerated population growth and urbanization. Improper waste disposal poses potential health risks and environmental concerns. Here, we investigated waste disposal practices in relation to household/dwelling characteristics in South African low-income communities. Data for 2014 to 2019 from a community-orientated primary care program were analyzed using logistic regression. Families who reported living in a shack were more likely to dump waste in the street. Households who reported using non-electric sources of fuel for heating/cooking, those who lacked proper sanitation, and those who did not have access to piped water inside the dwelling were more likely to dispose of waste by dumping it in the street/in the yard or burying it. Families living in low-income settlements are at risk of solid waste exposure and this situation is exacerbated by poor access to piped water, proper sanitation, and electricity.

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime.

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

The Importance of Space and Time in Aggravated Assault Victimization.

Interpersonal crimes such as aggravated assault greatly impacts upon an individuals' sense of personal safety and security as the crime results in a physical injury. Understanding where and when aggravated assaults are most likely to occur is therefore vital to minimize the victimization risk associated with this crime. The main aim of this study is to explore the relative importance of space and time in aggravated assault victimization. This was done using national level aggravated assault data (2008-2010) obtained from New Zealand Police and census data from Statistics New Zealand. Both the spatial and temporal distribution of aggravated assault are outlined to examine their association with aggravated assault victimization. Aggravated assault is found to cluster in space but not in time. The relationships between aggravated assault risk in space and time and a suite of social, economic, and lifestyle variables was then examined. A clear socioeconomic gradient was found between aggravated assault risk by space and all neighborhood characteristics with high-risk neighborhoods having greater residential mobility and ethnic/racial diversity, as well as being more deprived, having higher rates of unemployment, and lower median household incomes. No clear pattern emerged between aggravated assault by time and the selected neighborhood characteristics. The policy implications of these findings in terms of policing and diversity conclude.

Moving Home: Examining the Independent Effects of Individual- and Neighborhood-Level Residential Mobility on Recidivism in High-Risk Parolees.

A number of studies have shown that the residential mobility of an offender postrelease can significantly influence recidivism. Research has also shown how the mobility of neighborhoods into which offenders are released is an important contextual factor that predicts recidivism. Within the social disorganization framework, this study combines these lines of research by examining the effect of both individual- and neighborhood-level residential mobility on recidivism for a cohort of high-risk prisoners released on parole in New Zealand. Using multilevel analysis techniques, we found that neither immediate individual-level residential mobility nor neighborhood-level mobility was associated with recidivism after controlling for various multilevel predictors. A number of individual- and neighborhood-level variables were predictive of recidivism, including the number of parole conditions placed on the released offender, and the percent foreign born in their neighborhood. These results are discussed within the context of an increasingly eclectic and diverse country.

The Effect of Neighborhood Recorded Crime on Fear: Does Neighborhood Social Context Matter?

A number of individual and neighborhood-level factors may influence the relationship between recorded crime in one's neighborhood and fear of crime. Understanding these factors may assist in reducing fear, which has been associated with poorer physical and mental health. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the effect of recorded crime rates on fear differs based on the neighborhood social context (social fragmentation) using hierarchical regression modelling, with separate analyses by crime type. Recorded crimes (2008-2010) and national (New Zealand) survey data were used. Higher crime in a neighborhood was associated with higher fear of crime, with only small effect size differences in feelings of fear by recorded type of crime. However, when stratified, the associations between violent and drug/alcohol crimes and fear of crime were larger for those living in highly fragmented neighborhoods compared with less fragmented neighborhoods. Efforts to alleviate fear of crime should focus on the broader neighborhood social context in which these feelings are espoused.

The independent associations of recorded crime and perceived safety with physical health in a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of men and women in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated associations of officially recorded crime and perceived neighbourhood safety with physical health, evaluating potential effect modification by gender. SETTING: Nationally representative population-based survey in New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: Individual-level data from 6995 New Zealand General Social Survey (2010-2011) participants with complete data on physical health status, perceived neighbourhood safety, sociodemographic characteristics and smoking. Crime rate for each participant's home census was estimated based on data from the New Zealand Police (2008-2010). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The Transformed Physical Composite Score from the SF-12, a physical health summary score based on self-report ranging from 0 to 100. RESULTS: We used cluster robust multivariable regression models to examine the associations among neighbourhood crime rates, perceived neighbourhood safety and the physical health summary score. Crime rates predicted adults' perception that it was unsafe to walk in their neighbourhood at night: for each additional crime per 100 000 residents adults were 1.9% more likely to perceive their neighbourhood as unsafe (95% CI 1.2% to 2.5%). While relatively uncommon, the rate of crime with a weapon strongly predicted perceived safety: for each additional crime per 100 000 residents in this category, adults were 12.9% more likely to report the neighbourhood as unsafe (95% CI 8.8% to 17.0%). Police-recorded violent and night crime rates were associated with worse physical health among women: for each additional crime per 100 000 residents in these category women had a 0.3 point lower physical health score (95% CIs -0.6 to -0.1 for violent crime and -0.5 to -0.1 for crime at night, gender interaction p values 0.08 and 0.01, respectively). Perceiving the neighbourhood as unsafe was independently associated with 1.0 point lower physical health score (95% CI -1.5 to -0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Gender may modify the associations of officially recorded crime rates with physical health. Perceived neighbourhood safety was independently associated with physical health.

Are feelings of peace or depression the drivers of the relationship between neighbourhood social fragmentation and mental health in Aotearoa/New Zealand?

Exploration of the influence of neighbourhood social context on supportive relationships and social cohesion is on the rise. Positive social contexts may be less stressful for residents, resulting in mental wellbeing and calmness; whereas negative contexts may increase stress and deleterious mental health. To examine this, we measured the relationship between an Index of Neighbourhood Social Fragmentation and overall mental well-being in New Zealand. Then we examined the influence of fragmentation on two components of mental health: depression and calmness. Increased fragmentation was significantly associated with lower mental health scores for the entire population and for females, with similar but insignificant trends for males. Increased fragmentation was associated with increased depression in both sexes, but not calmness. Depression rather than calmness may contribute to the observed association between fragmentation and overall mental health. Groups vulnerable to stressful social contexts may be prone to depression in fragmented neighbourhoods. Further examination of the specific aspects of living in fragmented neighbourhoods which increase depressive feelings is warranted.

Close proximity to alcohol outlets is associated with increased serious violent crime in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between geographic access to alcohol outlets and serious violent crime in New Zealand. METHODS: A national study of alcohol outlet access and serious violent crime used a cross-sectional ecological analysis. Serious violence offences recorded between 2005 and 2007 were aggregated for 286 police station areas. Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS), 9,320 licensed premises were geocoded and road travel distances to the closest alcohol outlet type/category were calculated for each area. Negative binomial regression models measured the association between the distance to the closest alcohol outlet and the number of serious violent offences in each police station area, controlling for area-level measures of social deprivation, Maori population, young males 15-29 years and population density. RESULTS: There were significant negative associations between distance (access) to licensed outlets and the incidence of serious violent offences with greater levels of violent offending recorded in areas with close access to any licensed premises compared to those areas with least access (IRR 1.5, 95% CI 1.10-2.03); with on-licensed premises (IRR 1.6, 95% CI 1.16-2.08); and off-licensed premises (IRR 1.4, 95% CI 1.05-1.93). CONCLUSION: Having greater geographic access to alcohol outlets was associated with increased levels of serious violent offending across study areas. IMPLICATIONS: Alcohol availability and access promoted under the current liberalised licensing regime are important contextual determinants of alcohol-related harm within New Zealand communities.